The EC and the ECB gave the "green light" for Bulgaria to join the Eurozone on January 1, 2026. The final "yes" is expected on July 8.
"If we continue to work in the way we are now, we will become richer, as the trends over the last five years are for the Bulgarian economy to sustainably grow faster than the non-Eurozone economy. If this continues, within the next 15-20 years we will reach the current average levels of Gross Domestic Product per capita in the Eurozone countries," said economist and financier Boris Petrov in the program "Denyat ON AIR."
According to him, we have had good trends over the past ten years and all the conditions are in place for them to be maintained.
"We are in a situation of having a deficit in the labor market, which is unique for our economy since the beginning of the transition. The economically active population in Bulgaria is starting to decline due to the demographic process. It will take us 10-15 years to reach the average European standard. It is not a small amount. We have come a long way," believes Petrov.
"The security of money is guaranteed. First, because the exchange rate is as it is. It has been like that for almost 30 years. The only thing that will change is the banknotes we use to pay in stores, as far as we use them. Statistics show that the use of banknotes decreases over time with the introduction of new payment technologies," the financier explained to Bulgaria ON AIR. The risks are related to the conditions for doing business in the country, which have deteriorated, weak institutions, corruption, Petrov pointed out.
"Other risks are related to monopolies, the structure of the markets, the deterioration of the demographic situation of the population, which inevitably has a growing fiscal cost. Asset prices are also one of the topics discussed. The opinion of the ECB and the European Systemic Risk Board from the last quarter of 2024 is that we have some overvaluation. The countries that introduce the euro have a psychological connection, of every upward change in prices with the fact that the banknote has been changed. There is no reason to look for a cause-and-effect relationship. This is a payment instrument. Prices are driven mainly by supply, demand and the behavior of economic agents", explained the economist. "The euro is in no way the reason for the price increase. At the same time, there is a solid decrease in fuel prices. This is a foundation for reducing the cost of delivering goods and logistics. Bulgarian business exchanges an average of 250 to 300 million euros per day into leva and vice versa. It incurs transaction costs, which are related to commissions. The eurozone looks like a developing monetary union that is open to accepting new members", emphasized Petrov.
The reduction of the BNB balance sheet will take place through several channels, the guest added.
"The first is the contribution to the capital participation in the ECB, which will be made after the official decision of the European Council. This will amount to slightly less than 1 billion euros. The other part for exchanging banknotes is about 15 billion," Petrov summarized.