The war in the Middle East will bring up to $250 billion to the Russian budget if it drags on until September, Der Spiegel writes, quoted by UNIAN.
The KSE Institute analytical center at the Kiev School of Economics has calculated how much Russia can earn from rising energy prices.
According to the first scenario, the war in Iran ends by mid-April. Oil prices on world markets rise to approximately $100 per barrel, and gas prices also rise. Instead of approximately $99 billion expected in 2026, Russia now receives $169 billion from oil exports alone; gas sales bring in another $50 billion. Thus, the Kremlin’s available revenues from raw materials increase by a total of $84 billion.
In the second scenario, the war drags on until the end of May.
“Oil prices temporarily rise to $140, but then quickly fall as regional production and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz resume relatively quickly. By the end of the year, the Kremlin would receive approximately $161.3 billion more in this scenario than it would have expected without the war with Iran. State revenues would increase by $97 billion“, the article states.
In another scenario, the war continues until the end of September. In this case, oil prices could rise to $150-200 per barrel. By the end of the year, oil and gas sales would bring Russia approximately $386.6 billion. The Kremlin's tax revenues from trade in goods would reach $212.5 billion.
For comparison, during the war, Ukraine received an average of about $100 billion in financial and military aid from its partners, Spiegel notes.
The Economist wrote that the war with Iran is becoming a difficult test for US President Donald Trump, threatening his influence at home and abroad.
They noted that even a short conflict could change the course of the president's second term, while prolonged military action could undermine his position in the Republican Party and weaken his control over foreign policy.