The White House sees three possible scenarios for Iran as the United States tightens its economic control over the region, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius said, citing US administration officials.
The first scenario involves overthrowing the Iranian government. White House officials believe this scenario is more likely if strikes against Iran cease than if they resume.
The second scenario involves the rise of a new supreme leader in Iran, such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
The third scenario suggests that hardliners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attempt to break the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or launch other strikes to force the United States to make further concessions.
Following the US-Israeli operation, Iran announced the suspension of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 15-20% of the world's oil, condensate and petroleum products pass, as well as over 30% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. After talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad on April 11 failed to produce results, US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
CNN reported, citing sources, that the Iranian delegation made it clear that Tehran would not lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until final agreements were reached. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a deal with the US was close but fell through due to "US maximalism".
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the US military would impose a naval blockade on all ships entering and leaving Iranian ports starting at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time (18:00 Bulgarian time) on April 13.
In response, Mohsen Rezaei, a senior military adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said that US attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz were "doomed to failure". Tehran would not allow such a move, he stressed.