„Measure“ outlined the differences between the voters who supported the two presidential candidate pairs that reached the runoff. According to the agency, Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev received stronger support among younger, highly educated and economically active citizens from large cities. The vote for Iliyana Yotova and Kiril Valchev was more evenly distributed between age groups and settlements.
„Younger people, with higher education, living in large cities, with higher social status, who travel frequently – "they were strongly mobilized by Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev," Yanitsa Petkova from "Myara" told BNR.
Demobilization in GERB and MRF
According to the agency, about 120 thousand GERB supporters voted in the first round. Nearly half of them supported Gyurov, and about a fifth - Yotova. Approximately 50 thousand voters from MRF participated, with nearly half of them voting for Yotova. The rest were divided between different candidates, among whom Gyurov stands out.
„Myara“ compares these numbers with the parliamentary vote in April, when the GERB electorate exceeded 400 thousand people, and that of MRF - 200 thousand. According to the agency, this indicates a demobilization of the two electoral corps.
The potential before the runoff
Over 300 thousand people who identified themselves as having voted for PP-DB in April also participated in the presidential vote. According to “Measure“ Gyurov received nearly half a million votes, which indicates support beyond the traditional party boundaries of PP and DB.
The agency sees a more serious reserve with “Progressive Bulgaria“. About 500 thousand people, or less than a third of those who voted for the formation on April 19, participated in the first round. The data is defined as a possibility for a few points of growth in the runoff, and not as a forecast for the final result.
According to “Measure“ about 14% of all voters were young, with an approximate 22% turnout in this group. “We had a mobilized electorate, which is rather youthful, liberal and urban, and we had a demobilized society“, commented Petkova.
Women were the majority among voters
Women made up nearly 56% of all voters, and men - about 44%. However, the difference was not decisive for the support for the two leading couples. Among those who voted for Yotova and Valchev, nearly 44% were men and 57% were women. For Gyurov and Kandev, the ratio was about 42% men to 58% women.
The lowest turnout was recorded in areas with a mixed population. Petkova links this to the absence of presidential candidate pairs from two political forces, whose voters have traditionally been mobilized through party structures. According to her, their total parliamentary vote in April exceeded 600 thousand votes.
“Myara“ data are hypotheses based on an exit poll from the first round. The second round between Yotova–Vulchev and Gyurov–Kandev is scheduled for November 1.
Sources: novini.bg, bnrnews.bg, dnes.bg