Sociologist Yuliy Pavlov expects Boyko Borisov to remain passive in the runoff between Andrey Gyurov and Iliana Yotova. According to him, the GERB leader may not call on the party's voters to actively support either of the two candidates.
„If Andrey Gyurov is elected president - GERB ends. I expect Borisov to be passive in the second round as well“, said Pavlov in the election studio „Metronome“ on Radio Focus. His comment was quoted by „Blits“ and „Dnes“.
Pavlov linked his prediction to the possible political consequences of Gyurov's victory. He did not present this as an official position of GERB, but as the expected behavior of Boyko Borisov depending on the outcome of the runoff.
The votes of the eliminated candidates
The sociologist predicted that the votes of the voters of Kostadin Kostadinov and Radostin Vassilev will not be transferred to Andrey Gyurov. Kostadinov and Petar Volgin received 12.54% in the first round, and Radostin Vassilev and Krasimir Manov - 4.61%.
“The picture will be different for the second round“, Pavlov said. According to him, the voters of the eliminated candidates will be decisive for the final result, but their behavior will not automatically follow party instructions.
Yotova leads before the runoff
Iliyana Yotova and Kiril Valchev won the first round with 34.763% with 99.94% of the protocols processed by the sectional election commissions, while Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev received 31.947%. The two presidential candidates and their vice presidents will appear in the runoff on November 1.
Pavlov pointed out that before the first round, sociological surveys showed a difference of at least 14-15% between the main contenders. He rejected the thesis that the low turnout was due solely to disinterest in the elections.
On the topic of the country's foreign policy course, the sociologist said that he did not expect a significant change. “I personally do not see a change in Bulgaria's geopolitical orientation, but in the talk“, said Pavlov.
According to him, some of the campaign messages were aimed at retaining voters who could switch to “Vazrazhdane“. Pavlov does not expect the candidates in the runoff to take a more pro-Russian line and believes that a change in foreign policy is unlikely.
Sources: blitz.bg, dnes.bg, mediapool.bg