The discrepancy between the forecasts on election day and the final result of the presidential runoff was due to votes that some voters did not accurately declare, mathematician Mikhail Konstantinov said on the Nova News programme “The Day Live”.
According to him, the exit poll at noon showed a ratio of approximately 50% to 40% in favour of Iliana Iotova. However, as the results were processed, the difference increased significantly. “Voters who voted for Iotova said they were voting for Gyurov. People lie,” Konstantinov said, clarifying that in his view this was not an accusation, since voters are not obliged to disclose their choice.
Konstantinov suggested that around 10% of GERB voters had supported Iotova. He linked this vote to attitudes towards “We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria”, the arrest of Boyko Borissov and the ousting of Zhelyazkov’s government.
The difference between the two candidates
Iliana Iotova won the runoff with 57.566% of the votes, while Andrey Gyurov received 39.483%. The difference between the two candidates was 343,601 votes. If the “I do not support anyone” votes are excluded, the ratio is 60% to 40% in favour of Iotova.
According to Konstantinov, Iotova won in 25 of the 28 electoral districts, while Gyurov won in three. Gyurov had a lead in Sofia’s 23rd and 24th multi-member electoral districts and in Kardzhali. “Kardzhali is not significant because very few people voted there,” the mathematician commented.
He described Iotova’s victory as the third-largest of the eight presidential elections held in Bulgaria. As the first two examples, he cited Georgi Parvanov’s victory in 2006 and Rumen Radev’s election over Anastas Gerdzhikov.
Comment on voter turnout and voting machines
According to Konstantinov’s estimate, voter turnout in the second round was around 28%. He also expressed a critical view of machine voting in local elections, when voters can vote simultaneously for several types of positions.
“It will be a complete tragedy if we use voting machines in local elections,” Mikhail Konstantinov said.
Sources: novini.bg