If the elections for the National Assembly were at the beginning of May, GERB-SDS would take 26 .5% of the votes, PP-DB – 16.4%, DPS – 15.4%, “Revival“ – 15.1%, BSP – 8.4%, ITN – 4.7%.
The data is from a “Gallup International Balkan“ survey conducted for the Bulgarian National Television. The survey is not a forecast of the election result, but a snapshot of the attitudes during the recently passed holidays in Bulgaria.
Among the other formations, it is too early for measurements, according to "Gallup". Even at this stage, however, it appears a comfortable starting position for the list around Vanya Grigorova with 2.5%, “Blue Bulgaria” are at this stage with 1.5%, and VMRO with 1.1% will clearly be in the battle for percentage. The arrangement of the other smaller parties and coalitions, which are now being created or are now being established, and which have a lower score below a percentage, is yet to be clarified.
The data allow at this stage to notice, without ordering, formations such as “Bulgarian Rise”, “The Left“, “Velichie“, “Green Movement“, formations such as those of Vasil Bozhkov, Radostin Vassilev , Ivan Geshev and others.
The specificity of the political situation in our country allows quite sudden developments or hidden votes in the polling situation, the size of which will be known only at the end of the campaign. But to begin with, this is reflected in a certain general swelling of the group of formations with relatively lower support, the sociologists specify.
Regarding the elections for the European Parliament, the likely shares of the votes cast for parties, coalitions and candidates, naturally for such a situation, look similar to those for the National Assembly, but some specifics already stand out. /p>
GERB-SDS would take 26.4% of the votes, PP-DB – 17.5%, VAT – 14.9%, “Revival“ – 14.7%, BSP – 8.2%, ITN – 4.5%, “Solidarity Bulgaria” – with 2.2%, “Blue Bulgaria” – 1.4%, VMRO – 1.3% and others in the fight for a percentage at this time.
At the beginning of May, the certainty of voting on June 9 for the National Assembly according to the respondents' declarations was 39.4%. Of all voters, 3.6% say they will vote for “I do not support anyone”.
For the European elections, the declarative activity is expectedly lower – 37.5% – but it remains to be seen whether and to what extent the voting in national elections will also involve voting in the European ones, and the difference in electoral lists will introduce additional nuances. 3.2% declare a firm intention to vote with “I do not support anyone” in the elections for Bulgarian representatives for the European Parliament.
The research was conducted for BNT between April 22 and May 2, 2024 among 808 people using the face-to-face method. with tablets. The sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The maximum standard deviation is +3.5% at 50 percent shares. 1% of the entire sample is equal to about 54 thousand people.