"There is no alternative to sending Western troops to Ukraine. This is the only way to prevent a new Russian war", says military expert Gustav Gressel. But are Western security guarantees real?
Ten European countries have announced that they are ready to create multinational troops for Ukraine, which would ensure peace there by operating in Ukraine itself. How exactly should we understand this, asks the German public broadcaster ARD.
"I myself would like to understand, but in essence only an operation in Ukraine itself would make any sense", says the expert. According to him, this does not necessarily mean that a permanent deployment of troops is necessary there. On the other hand, he draws attention to the fact that any deployment of troops outside Ukraine would be a prologue to a new war and explains why.
"If there is a real ceasefire and elections in Ukraine, the state of emergency will have to be lifted, the army will have to be demobilized and restrictions on leaving the country lifted. On the other hand, the Russian army will not be demobilized, on the contrary - Moscow plans to continue increasing its army in the next decade. The sword of Damocles of a potential new invasion will continue to hang over Ukraine", says Gustav Gressel.
What are the options for real security guarantees?
The question is how Kiev can defend itself against this. According to the expert, it would be unrealistic to expect that Ukraine could be armed with foreign aid to the extent that it would be able to adequately defend itself against a potential new invasion.
The reason - Europe must also arm itself quickly in this case, and this seems to be a problem for most countries on the Old Continent, which are already experiencing difficulties in achieving the defense goals set by NATO. The second option - Ukraine's membership in NATO - also seems to be no longer being discussed. The US does not agree with it, and Hungary is also opposed, Gressel explained to ARD.
This means that work must be done on the issue of European troops to guarantee Ukraine's security. If they are integrated into a reduced Ukrainian army, this will not only strengthen it, but will also raise questions for Russia, which will not know whether, if a new invasion begins, it will not have to fight international troops. “This will create political uncertainty that will make a potential new attack difficult for Vladimir Putin”, says Gressel.
Troops in Ukraine itself?
In the hypothesis that the troops are stationed outside the borders of Ukraine - for example in Romania or Poland, it will be much easier for the Kremlin to launch a new invasion. There is also another thing - if the troops are in Ukraine, there is no way that in the event of a possible Russian invasion, Europe will decide to support Kiev only with sanctions, solidarity, weapons, as happened in 2022.
“There is no alternative to sending Western troops to Ukraine. This is the only way to prevent a new war by Russia, says military expert Gustav Gressel in an interview with ARD. According to him, however, political tensions within the European countries themselves on this issue could hinder this plan.
How to keep the US at the negotiating table
“What is important for the Europeans is the diplomatic role of the US - especially in view of Trump's behavior. It is important that Washington and Trump directly commit to whether the ceasefire will be respected. So that one day he cannot simply withdraw and say - “there, it's done, we have achieved peace, this is no longer my problem”, as he did with Cambodia and Thailand or Congo”, the expert tells ARD.
A very important question is what political mechanism will maintain the US's commitment to a future ceasefire and who will bear political responsibility if it fails, says Gustav Gressel. Of course, it is not clear whether the US will commit to this new plan at all and whether Trump will simply propose a new ill-conceived peace plan between Russia and Ukraine in a month. According to the military expert, however, it is good, even if it only buys time for Ukraine while the current option is being discussed.
A similar opinion is expressed by Colonel Markus Reisner, a military expert and expert on the situation in Ukraine, who told DW: “It is amazing to me that the Americans were so quickly ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. And here a suspicion arises that they may think - this is not important at all, we will sign some document, but we are not obliged to implement it. The important thing is that the war ends faster and we can win. Therefore, we must be cautious here and hope that the security guarantees from the US, if they give them, will be really serious“.
This is cracking Russia's military coffers
Military expert Gressel explains what tactics are needed: “Every month that the US remains at the negotiating table and sticks to its sanctions against Russia, Moscow's military coffers are emptied and the Kremlin's ability to continue its war is cracked. If this plan is simply a way to get Trump's attention and is used as a delaying tactic, it is still useful from a European perspective”, Gressel tells ARD.
Short-term solutions like this, however, cannot put sustainable pressure on Russia. “At the moment, we are struggling to continue the military support, the diplomatic and economic pressure. However, everything that was discussed in Berlin should not stop us from discussing how to tighten the noose around Russia even further”.