I am a well-informed Russophile, without being a Putinophile. I didn't have to - I had to represent my country.
Radev and Yotova are poorly informed Russophiles. The difference is significant. I try to understand Russia, to predict its behavior, to assess the risks and benefits of one or another action. Such a cold analysis, in which there are no emotions, but there are real values - risk, benefits, threats, forecasts.
In Yotova and Radev, there are atrophied ideological reflexes, which often and obviously prevail over the analysis of the facts.
They think that by being careful in their assessments of Moscow, it will respond to them in the same way. Naives.
No matter how much Mitrofanova shouts, the Russian authorities understand actions, not diplomatic "subtleties". She will talk to Radev, deny everything, he will express concern and... that's it. The Russian services are not impressed by such rituals at all. They evaluate the reaction of the other side according to completely different criteria: what they can afford, what risk they take and what price they will pay. And they always know that they will get away with it, which encourages the next action.
Previous ships were attacked over 100 km from the coast. Now only 13 miles, a mile beyond our territorial waters. Therefore, it is a matter of time before they try to attack a ship even in Bulgarian territorial waters.
We are already seeing reports of infiltration and attacks against communication infrastructure related to Starlink and military facilities. This is a secret military facility, and this will raise even more acute questions about the security of NATO's military infrastructure, which plays a critical role in the defense of the country. And this security depends on the ability of the Bulgarian services to protect the strategic infrastructure. Once they have established that there are two masked men, then they could have protected these secret facilities. But if they are still waiting for indisputable evidence that this is a Russian operation, they will invite the GRU, FSB and SVR to take even bolder steps.
Because the problem is not only in this particular case. The problem is in the years of inaction, including under Radev and Yotova, which creates conditions for Bulgaria to be a convenient entry point for Russian intelligence and agent networks in Europe. In the same way that dependence on Russian pipeline gas has turned energy into an instrument of political influence, institutional weakness turns security into vulnerability.
Radev and Yotova should remember the example of General Ivan Kolev and Ivan Vazov. These are people who were sympathetic to Russia, but when Russian politics and Russian troops threatened Bulgaria, they put the Fatherland above their ideological feelings. True patriotism does not require you to hate the Kremlin. It requires you not to allow the Russian state to threaten Bulgaria.
This is precisely the problem for Radev and Yotova. Russia is destabilizing Bulgaria before our eyes, and the reactions of Bulgarian institutions remain hesitant and often unconvincing. This creates the impression that the Kremlin can act with relatively low risk. And Putin needs propaganda victories, demonstrations of NATO's impotence, and evidence that he can pressure individual member states. Bulgaria is a particularly convenient scene when the expected cost of such operations seems low.
I know the way these people think. That is why I warn: until you limit the agent networks, restore the ability of the services to defend the state, and show that every hostile operation has a price, Moscow will continue to treat Bulgaria as a vassal.
You have been warned. And one last joker - it will not work with the same people who currently lead the services. They are compromised.
Diplomacy makes sense when it is supported by capabilities, reliable intelligence, and the will to act. Without them, it is simply a backdrop behind which national security gradually disintegrates.
* The title is from FACTS