US President Donald Trump's decision to allow supplies of Russian diesel fuel has called into question the unity of Western sanctions policy towards Russia. Washington took this step at a time when Moscow is intensifying its attacks on Ukraine's energy and civilian infrastructure. The White House explained this decision by the crisis in the global energy market, for which it blames Kiev, because it refused to stop strikes on Russian oil refineries.
Quiet diplomacy and internal pressure
Jamie Shay, senior research fellow at the Brussels-based think tank “Friends of Europe“ and a former senior NATO official believes that after the White House's decision to resume imports of Russian diesel, Europeans are likely to resort to quiet - that is, non-public - diplomacy. According to him, Europe understands that Trump is under significant domestic political pressure due to the upcoming midterm elections in the United States. “At the same time, however, the Europeans will “oppose Trump's attempts to shift the blame for the energy crisis onto Ukraine and insist that the cause is Trump's war against Iran“, he tells DW.
The expert does not rule out the possibility that resistance in the US Congress, including among Republicans, could force Trump to reconsider his position.
Europe must offer an alternative
In the dialogue with Washington, which European leaders must urgently begin, there should be no “pressure and persuasion on Trump to change course“, as he could take a defensive position, believes Roger Hilton, a defense researcher at the Slovak think tank GLOBSEC.
He believes that Europe must offer a convincing alternative – economic incentives to support diplomatic efforts without harming Ukraine's position. According to Hilton, any economic concessions to Moscow should be contingent on specific changes in its behavior, and not be provided in advance in the hope of retaliatory steps from Russia.
"Trump is not interested in supporting Ukraine
After the announcement of the agreement between the US and the Kremlin on the supply of Russian diesel fuel, media reports appeared that the US side was considering the possibility of suspending intelligence sharing with Ukraine and arms sales if Kiev continued to ignore Washington's demand not to strike Russian oil refineries. Hilton is adamant that neither Ukrainian nor European defense production can instantly replace all American capabilities: “It would be particularly difficult to find a replacement for modern intelligence, surveillance and certain air defense systems in a short period of time“, the military analyst admits.
Trump wants to show the Americans that he will make efforts to reduce pricesPhoto: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP
According to German security expert Carlo Mazzala, recent reports from the United States show one thing: “Trump is not at all interested in supporting Ukraine; domestic politics and relations with Russia are much more important to him“.
Mazzala believes that the American president is trying with all his might, including through the agreement with Russia, to influence the course of the midterm elections for the US Congress in November. Surveys show that Trump's Republican Party could lose its majority in at least one of the two chambers of parliament - the House of Representatives. The loss of the Republican majority in the Senate is also a realistic scenario. American voters are unhappy with high fuel prices, and Trump hopes that with supplies from Russia he will be able to influence the market.
However, observers consider this illusory: “The volumes of supplies are so small that they will have no impact on prices. The supplies planned even before the midterm elections are insufficient to cover the country's diesel needs for even one day. And subsequent supplies, if they take place at all, will not affect the price”, said in an interview with ARD, political science professor at the University of Cologne Thomas Jaeger. According to him, Trump simply wants to show voters that he is making an effort to solve the problem that worries them.
Europe must increase pressure on Russia
Experts are skeptical that the agreement on Russian diesel and Trump's proposal for a mutual cessation of strikes by Ukraine and Russia on energy facilities can push Moscow to take any steps towards a peaceful settlement of the conflict.
“I don't see a serious prospect of progress in the peace talks in the near future“, stated former NATO official Jamie Shea. According to him, Putin is counting on the fact that the coming winter, the Russian offensive and the critical situation with the supply of weapons to Ukraine “will drive Kiev into a dead end and force it to make additional territorial and political concessions“.
Shea also points out that the negotiation process, which is being led on behalf of the United States by Kushner and Witkoff, is focused more on the potential economic benefits to the United States from future cooperation with Russia than on the issue of preserving Ukraine as an independent state. Under these conditions, the best response from Europe would be to further increase the sanctions pressure on Moscow.
Source: www.dw.com