The weather has seriously deteriorated. Clouds and rain covered the country. It is good to realize what is happening to the domestic electricity sector in such conditions. Here are some observations based on data from Wednesday (28.10) and the current week:
1. Consumption is increasing relatively little and the peaks are weakly expressed. People have not yet started to heat themselves seriously, that is, everything down is just a warning. Reality will come with sub-zero temperatures.
2. Bulgaria becomes a net importer of electricity (second graph). The current week will be the first in a long time in which Bulgaria will be in negative territory in this regard.
3. Lignite thermal power plants and nuclear power plants can no longer cover base load consumption. Large hydropower plants are increasingly included in the mix. The sun and wind are becoming very unpredictable. One day they can give a lot, the next - almost nothing.
4. Batteries start charging more at night than during the day. PVPPs charge only at night. This is due to prices, which are lower at night than during the day. The myth that batteries are powered only by electricity from renewable sources is debunked with the first big rain. By charging at night, they appear as a consumer who raises prices and allows coal-fired power plants to operate at a profit. In reality, batteries indirectly transfer part of their production to the morning and evening peaks and profit from the difference. We will see the same pattern more and more often with the arrival of winter.
5. Prices are skyrocketing - already steadily over 200 euros/MWh every hour of the day and over 300 euros/MWh per day on average. Despite this, the total production of domestic power plants is not moving up at all. This is an interesting phenomenon that deserves attention.
Why don't we produce more and export like before?
When one of the nuclear power plant units is under planned repair, the water in the dams is stored for the winter, and the sun and wind play the "Here there is, here there is none", our system generally relies on lignite thermal power plants. They can and must significantly increase their production during the autumn-winter period if we want Bulgaria to be able to supply itself. Current electricity prices are an excellent prerequisite - even with expensive emission quotas, our lignite thermal power plants would make great profits.
Yes, but thermal power plants are dormant. A look at their production curve within the current week (third graph) shows that instead of printing money, their work stagnates at the level of 1700-1800 MW. The detailed breakdown shows what is happening to the individual plants - I comment on them from the bottom up in the graph:
1. Bobov Dol TPP is completely absent (the three zeros at the bottom), that is, 450 MW are idle. The only explanation for me is an accident. Maritsa 3 TPP has also stopped, but it is not that significant.
2. AES Galabovo TPP (MI-1) is not working. The most modern and maneuverable 700 MW in Bulgaria is sleeping, waiting for the state to provide them with a slightly longer-term vision for existence. It would need at least a month of preparation to re-enter the system.
3. In this situation, the state-owned Maritsa East 2 TPP is already operating at almost full capacity with all 8 units. This means that the system reaches the edge of its current capabilities even with the first heavy rain. It does not sound optimistic in the context of the coming winter.
4. The ContourGlobal Maritsa East 3 TPP is operating at full capacity with the two remaining units. If the other two had not been removed, it would have had twice the capacity, but it no longer does.
This is what I see in the data. Yesterday and today the situation is very similar and does not inspire optimism for the winter...