Europe’s energy sector buckled at the first signs of bad weather.
Week 44 of 2026 (26.10–1.11) has passed. Slightly worse weather arrived across Europe. In view of the approaching winter and the unending wars around the world, it is worth seeing how the electricity system coped. Here are some key facts:
1. Electricity consumption and generation at EU level have not changed significantly (the first two charts; 2026/2025).
2. Despite the massive investments in batteries and new installed solar and wind capacity, the share of renewables in generation fell from 49% to 40.9%. Surprisingly, solar power generated more in the worsening weather, but wind power performed terribly compared with 2025. Hydropower plants also generated less. Nuclear power recorded a decline from 24.8% to 22.3%, mainly due to Romania and Hungary.
3. Fossil-fuel power plants (gas, coal and oil) covered the gap—their share of generation jumped from 26.2% to 36.9%. The increase in lignite-fired power generation is particularly remarkable—these plants operate solely on domestic fuels—with output up 70% compared with a year ago. The only reason their growth was not greater is that many power plants have meanwhile been shut down, meaning they cannot start operating, no matter how much we might want them to in this geopolitical situation.
4. Despite extremely high gas prices (they exceeded €100/MWh during the week), gas-fired power generation in the EU jumped by 50% compared with a year ago, and these plants supplied 20.7% of the electricity overall. Accordingly, we recorded the first week of net gas withdrawals from storage facilities that were already relatively empty (third chart). This is a red flag.
5. Average prices on the “Day-ahead” market (charts 4 and 5) primarily reflect the facts under point 4, plus the prices of carbon allowances, which have already reached €90 per tonne of CO2. The increases vary from country to country, so I will give just three examples: a) France, from €45 to €222/MWh; b) Germany, from €74 to €230/MWh; Bulgaria, from €108 to €284/MWh.
6. A look at the import and export chart (the sixth) shows that the major exporting countries are once again France, Sweden and Norway, while the major importers are Italy, Portugal and Germany.
Against this backdrop, there are several pieces of news concerning Bulgaria:
1. Our consumption and generation are growing significantly (charts 7 and 8 )—by 6.5%.
2. From being a significant exporter in the summer, we have become a net electricity importer at the first spell of bad weather of the year. This is a red flag.
3. Despite the huge investments in solar power and batteries, solar plants supplied only 12.2% of all electricity, compared with 22.4% a year ago. The share of nuclear power (only one unit was operating then as well) also fell from 30.3% to 23.5%.
4. Lignite-fired power plants covered the gap. Their output jumped by 86% year-on-year, and during the past week they supplied 42.2% of the country’s electricity. The only reason they are not operating more is that 1,000 MW have meanwhile already been taken out of the system. The state-owned Maritsa East 2 thermal power plant is operating at full capacity, but it cannot fill the gap on its own.
That is the situation, and it will only deteriorate as the cold weather arrives and heating is switched on—something the politicians in power want to electrify entirely.