American President Trump and the West will have to think about what they will do if Putin ignores the conditions of the White House. The moment of truth for Trump's Russian policy will come very soon, believes Konstantin Eggert.
Putin has already responded to Trump's request within 50 days to conclude a ceasefire with Ukraine - the massive shelling of Ukrainian cities by the Russian army continues. And the 50 days granted by Trump will not lead to significant changes in the behavior of the Kremlin. They simply do not believe that the intentions of Washington and its allies are serious enough.
"Tomahawks" for Ukraine?
However, it seems that the current insistence on peace addressed to Moscow is really the last from the White House and is probably purely symbolic. Since the conclusion of a relatively serious peace treaty in a month and a half would be possible only under one condition: that all parties to the conflict want to conclude it, and at any cost. However, there is nothing like this either in Moscow or in Kiev, but for completely different reasons.
The Trump administration cannot help but understand this. The 50-day postponement until the “execution of the sentence“ seems to be to show Trump voters that all diplomatic options have been exhausted. The fact that the Europeans will pay for the supply of American weapons to Ukraine is also aimed at those who support Trump: so that they know that not a cent of American taxpayers' money will be spent on supporting Ukraine.
In addition, the US administration has seriously threatened with secondary sanctions. The corresponding bill has already been prepared in Congress. These sanctions should affect countries that buy oil and gas from Russia and help it circumvent the sanctions regime. This is a very serious issue.
Judging by everything, the US president is ready to increase pressure on the Russian regime. According to the “Financial Times“, during a recent telephone conversation, Trump asked Zelensky whether Ukraine was capable of striking Moscow and St. Petersburg. Zelensky replied that it could, if it received the appropriate long-range weapons from its allies. But in the meantime, it became clear that something else - that Trump had spoken out against such strikes. According to the “Financial Times“, Trump still does not rule out the possibility of supplying Kiev with “Tomahawk“ cruise missiles. The idea of the US president is simple: to make the Russians feel what the Ukrainians experience every day, to cause them such pain, that they seriously think about peace.
Putin's "warning shot"
The White House does not seem to fully realize that the Russian system, built by Putin on the basis of fear, cynicism and corruption, makes any manifestation of popular discontent unlikely, even if there were some hypothetical "Tomahawk" shelling of Moscow and St. Petersburg. There were no protests in Russia, even when the Ukrainian army captured part of the Russian Kursk region. A dangerous explosion of indignation for the regime, in my opinion, could be caused either by a general mobilization of soldiers (which is precisely why the regime avoids it in every way), or by the collapse of the most popular bank, Sberbank, which is, however, unlikely.
It is known that for Putin the most important thing is not to appear "weak" - both in the eyes of the world and in the eyes of his own population and especially elite. And since the bill with secondary sanctions has been known for a long time, it seems that the series of high-profile corruption cases against prominent officials and businessmen close to the regime are a kind of warning shot from Putin, which the elite needs to hear and understand: no matter how difficult it is, the Kremlin boss will not allow resistance, and even less talk.
Putin has repeatedly saved himself thanks to the fact that the West is afraid - first of the so-called “escalation“, i.e., the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, and secondly - of the “unknown“ that may follow the end of the regime. “And what if the next one is even worse than Putin's?“, European and American experts have asked themselves more than once. Although – what could be even worse?
Waiting will not is long
The main question that America and its allies must answer is - are they prepared to increase pressure on Russia and help Ukraine, including with supplies of weapons such as cruise missiles, without taking these concerns into account?
Based on all his previous experience, Putin is convinced that this will not happen. After some time, he may try to imitate "readiness for dialogue". For example, by sending Foreign Minister Lavrov again to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This is the moment that will be decisive for Trump and his reputation. The wait will not be long - 50 days pass quickly.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.