ISW: Russia has started Phase Zero of preparations for a possible war with NATO

Russia has started a new phase of preparations for a potential conflict with NATO, known as "Phase Zero". The discovery of the so-called "little green men" on the border with Estonia indicates the formation of an information and psychological bridgehead for a possible future war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its latest report.

On October 10, Estonian authorities temporarily closed a section of the road passing through Russian territory near the border between Russia and Estonia after Estonian border guards spotted a small group of Russian military personnel without insignia in the area. Meelis Saarepuu, head of the Southern Prefecture of the Estonian Police and Border Guard, said on 11 October that Estonian authorities had closed a nearly one-kilometre stretch of road between Varska and Saatse, part of which runs through Russian territory, for safety reasons after seven armed Russian soldiers were spotted near the Russian section of the road on 10 October.

Saarepuu said the uniforms of the soldiers indicated that they were not Russian border guards. Saarepuu said that the Russian border guards had responded to inquiries by Estonian border guards by stating that Russian activity in the area was routine. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahna said on 12 October that Russian forces were acting "a little more aggressively than before", but that reports that the situation on the border was becoming more tense were exaggerated. Tsahna noted that Estonian authorities plan to completely discontinue the use of the road in the future, as alternative routes that bypass Russian territory are already in place or are being built.

The reports of a small group of Russian military personnel operating near Estonian territory come against the backdrop of violations of Estonian airspace by Russian military aircraft on September 7 and 19.

"ISW continues to assess that Russia has recently intensified its covert and overt attacks on Europe and that Russia has entered "Phase Zero" - the phase of creating information and psychological conditions - of its campaign to prepare for a possible future war between NATO and Russia. This event is the first time that ISW has observed "little green men" (a euphemism used by the Kremlin for Russian military forces in uniforms without insignia) to operate near a NATO country in the context of the "Phase Zero" campaign.