In recent months, commercial ships in the Black Sea have been targeted, ports have been attacked, and drones and marine vehicles have appeared more and more frequently on trade routes. The safety of sailors is already in question.
These are not just isolated incidents, believes author Nur Tugba Aktay. According to her, the dispute is no longer just about the security of individual ships, but about the safety of trade in the Black Sea as a whole.
The line between civil shipping and the battlefield is gradually blurring. A ship’s flag, cargo, and route are no longer enough to put it beyond the reach of military risks.
Risk is spilling over into the economy
The consequences are not just military. Security concerns can affect shipping, insurance, freight, and energy and food prices.
The Black Sea is a key crossroads for routes carrying grain, oil, and energy resources. Any threat to shipping can therefore spread beyond the countries directly involved in the war and affect the international trading system.
One of the clearest signals comes from the insurance market. The expansion of high-risk areas in the Black Sea shows that the geography of security is changing. Marine insurance does not respond to slogans, but to the price of risk.
This means higher costs for shipowners and additional uncertainty for carriers, cargo and routes. Ultimately, the risk can also be transferred to the prices of goods.
The role of Turkey
Turkey is not a party to the war, but this does not mean that it remains outside its consequences. Due to its geographical location, the country is among the most affected by the changing security environment in the Black Sea.
The Montreux Convention gives Ankara not only legal responsibility, but also significant strategic weight. Turkey controls the main sea passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Therefore, according to the author, a reliable security architecture in the region cannot be built without taking Ankara's position into account.
However, Turkey faces a difficult balance. The Black Sea should not become a new arena for military rivalry between NATO and Russia. Regional responsibility, limiting tensions and preserving the balance ensured by the Montreux Convention are approaches that, according to Aktay, are more important than ever.
However, reducing tensions should not mean leaving security unprotected. Military technology has changed, and unmanned systems, precision munitions, electronic warfare and satellite intelligence are putting civilian ships in a previously unknown risk environment.
A common maritime security system is needed
The fact that commercial ships are using nets and improvised barriers on their decks to protect themselves from drone attacks shows how much the nature of the threat has changed.
According to the author, ship operators share a common concern: the security of commercial ships is no longer just a commercial issue, but also a matter of national security. Among the needs identified are early warning, intelligence sharing, port security and shipping safety.
Protecting a ship means simultaneously protecting the hull, crew, cargo, route, insurance and the economic chain that depends on it.
Cooperation between Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria in the field of maritime security could be expanded beyond measures against sea mines. A possible model includes unmanned systems, intelligence sharing, protection of civilian maritime traffic and early warning mechanisms.
According to Aktay, this is where Turkey's ability to enhance security without going to war; to create deterrence without taking sides; to preserve the spirit of the Montreux Convention while responding to new threats.
The main question is no longer just how many ships have been attacked in the Black Sea, but how far the geography of safe trade will shrink.
The challenge for Turkey is not to enter the war, but to prevent the conflict from engulfing the centuries-old trading order in the Black Sea. A security system needs to be rebuilt before the lines on the map become permanent divisions.
Sources: turkiyegazetesi.com.tr