Iran has maintained some of its missile and drone production plants despite months of US and Israeli air strikes. This allows Tehran to replenish its arsenal while US President Donald Trump maintains a pause in major attacks until the midterm elections in November, Bloomberg reports, quoted by RBC.
According to Western officials familiar with intelligence assessments, Iran still has sufficient stocks of ballistic missiles and anti-ship weapons. They say the country has the ability to quickly restore its firepower if hostilities are renewed. One of Tehran's likely responses to new US strikes would be an asymmetric war.
This assessment contradicts repeated statements by Trump and his administration that the US-Israeli operation has destroyed Iran's main military capabilities. The White House says the country's nuclear facilities, missiles, manufacturing facilities and naval forces were hit.
Missile stockpiles remain significant
A Bloomberg Economics analysis shows that since February 28, Iran has launched more than 4,000 cruise missiles and at least 2,000 ballistic missiles. In June, Western intelligence agencies estimated the country's stockpiles at about three-quarters of their pre-war levels.
The resilience of Iran's military-industrial base is explained by several factors. Anti-ship missile production is relatively easy to restore, and Tehran uses technologies related to old Chinese models. The mountainous terrain in the southern part of the country also provides natural cover for some of the production sites.
On October 8, Trump said that Washington was having "productive discussions" with Tehran and would not attack Iran until the US midterm elections if oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz continued. According to Western estimates, this pause could give Iran time to restore some of its missile and drone capabilities.