Russia may face a severe financial crisis in 2027, and the authorities may seek funds for the war directly from citizens' bank savings. Vitaly Shapran, a former member of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine, made such a forecast in an interview with the Ukrainian news agency UNIAN.
According to him, the pressure on Russian finances comes from the simultaneous increase in military spending, labor shortages, a decline in investments and the increasing difficulty of financing the budget deficit.
The deficit could reach 10.5 trillion rubles
The draft budget of Russia for 2027 includes a deficit of 5.5 trillion rubles. However, Shapran expects the real gap to reach 10.5 trillion rubles, or about 105 billion euros. He cites the 2026 budget as an example, in which the initially planned deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles has subsequently grown to about 7.5 trillion rubles.
Russia's total budget expenditures in 2027 are planned at 48.8 trillion rubles. Officially, 44% of them are intended for defense and security, but according to Shapran, the actual share of military and related payments could exceed half of the budget.
Additional pressure is exerted by the state debt. More than 4.5 trillion rubles are planned for its servicing, and the yield on Russian government bonds reaches 14-17% per year. This makes it more expensive to raise new debt and limits funds for other spending.
Oil revenues remain a precarious pillar
Russia relies on oil and gas revenues, but they may prove insufficient if prices continue to fall. For 2027, Moscow is setting a tax price for oil of $51 per barrel, compared to $59 in the 2026 budget.
Oil and gas revenues in September reached 452 billion rubles, compared to 424 billion rubles in August, but Shapran described them as one of the weakest monthly levels of the year. He believes that if the tax price of Russian oil remains below $45 per barrel for at least six months, the economy could fall into a severe crisis.
According to his assessment, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are limiting processing and increasing the state's costs of compensation to oil companies.
Deposits as a possible source of funds
Shapran claims that Moscow is also encountering difficulties in selling government bonds. According to him, in the summer of 2026, the Finance Ministry canceled several auctions due to a lack of liquidity.
Against this background, the amount of money in circulation has increased by about 20% over the past 12 months. Shapran links this to attempts by citizens and businesses to limit their tax burden and keep more funds outside the banking system.
He estimates the total value of bank deposits of the Russian population at 60-65 trillion rubles. “I think that the final point in the Russian issue will be precisely the partial or complete freezing of Russians' deposits“, Shapran told UNIAN.
In such a scenario, banks could direct the attracted resources to government bonds, and the government could use the funds to cover the budget deficit and military spending.
So far, there is no information about the Kremlin's announced plan to freeze deposits. This remains Shapran's prediction, which he believes would become more likely with continued low oil revenues and new difficulties in financing the Russian state.
Sources: money.bg, unian.net