The past week was marked by a new escalation in relations between Kiev and Washington. US threats to limit intelligence support for Ukraine and Donald Trump's decision to temporarily ease sanctions on Russian fuels have raised concerns that the rift could have serious consequences for Ukraine's defense, BTA reports.
Unhappy with high energy prices, which he partly blames on Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, Trump has repeatedly criticized Volodymyr Zelensky. The disruption of U.S. satellite internet services has further heightened concerns about Ukraine’s vulnerability ahead of another winter of Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Zelensky has responded with unusually harsh public criticism and suggested the United States is already backing Russia. He said Kiev would not comply with Trump’s demand to halt strikes on Russian energy facilities while Moscow continues its attacks on Ukraine.
The deepening tensions have raised concerns that the U.S. president could limit arms sales, stop sharing battlefield intelligence or strike new economic deals with Russia.
Despite the harsh tone, Kiev wants to maintain dialogue with Trump’s envoys — his friend Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. This was stated by two Ukrainian officials familiar with the negotiations, who requested anonymity.
On Friday, Denis Sienyk, chargé d'affaires at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington, told the TV channel “Newsmax“ that Ukraine was grateful to Trump and his team for their efforts “to end the war“. He added that Kiev was ready to start negotiations with Russia. The same day, Trump told reporters that he would continue to work with both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I want this war to end,“ the American leader said.
“A missed opportunity“
Daniel Fried, a senior State Department official who was in charge of Europe between 2005 and 2009, indicated that it was still not clear whether Washington was taking a lasting turn in its policy towards Ukraine. But he said the latest developments were hurting prospects for ending the war that began with a full-scale Russian invasion in 2022.
“This is not just a missed opportunity, it is causing real suffering in Ukraine and encouraging Putin to continue the war, so it is not without consequences,“ said Fried, who now works at the Washington-based think tank “Atlantic Council“.
The relationship between Trump and Zelensky has long been complicated. In February last year, the US president and Vice President J.D. Vance publicly criticized the Ukrainian leader during a meeting in the Oval Office.
Under Trump, Washington has suspended or delayed military aid to Ukraine, while allowing European allies to buy US weapons for Kiev. Relations had stabilized, but this year, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities began to be associated with rising fuel prices.
High gasoline and diesel prices are a political problem for Trump ahead of the November midterm elections. According to analysts, the Republican Party risks losing its majority in the US Congress.
Experts attribute the rise in energy prices primarily to the US and Israel's war against Iran. The conflict led to Iranian attacks on energy facilities and a de facto blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz to a large extent.
Unhappy with Zelensky, Trump turned to Russia to increase fuel supplies and limit prices, said an official familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity. On October 9, Trump announced that he had reached an agreement with Putin to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian fuel and imports of Russian diesel.
High stakes for Ukraine
For Kiev, the consequences of any potential reduction in U.S. support could be immediate. On Tuesday, Zelensky said that Ukraine had received no warning from its Western partners before the deadly Russian attack on the capital, Kiev.
Without U.S. intelligence, Ukrainian forces may have greater difficulty detecting and repelling Russian missile and drone attacks. This is especially important for protecting energy infrastructure, which Moscow has repeatedly attacked in previous winters.
Trump said the United States was continuing to share intelligence with Ukraine. But Zelensky told NPR radio that U.S. officials had warned Ukrainian commanders that that support could be reduced or terminated.
On Thursday, Reuters reported, citing two U.S. and one Western official familiar with the matter, that Ukraine's Starshield system - the military version of SpaceX's Starlink service - had been cut off after an order from the White House.
The service was later partially restored, but the incident highlighted the risks of Ukraine's reliance on technology controlled by U.S. companies and subject to the Trump administration's decisions. This dependence provides the US president with a potential tool to pressure Kiev to start negotiations with Moscow.
However, Trump may encounter resistance in Congress if Republicans believe that his approach weakens Ukraine and benefits Russia. Some of his party members continue to support Kiev and insist that Washington should not pressure the Ukrainian leadership to accept a peace agreement on terms favorable to Moscow.
Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Barack Obama administration and head of the Global Situation Room consulting firm, described Zelensky's tough reaction as risky. According to him, the Ukrainian president may be counting on the fact that after the midterm elections the balance of power in Capitol Hill will change, which will make it difficult for Trump to ease sanctions against Russia and further reduce military aid to Kiev.
“Zelensky knows who he is dealing with“, Bruen said. In his words, “Trump's threats don't have the same effect as when J.D. Vance tried to embarrass him in the Oval Office“.