5 parties would enter the National Assembly if the elections were held today. This is according to data from a nationally representative survey by “Gallup International Balkan“, conducted in the period 20.03.2026 - 30.03.2026 through a standardized personal face-to-face interview using tablets (TAPI). 820 adult citizens of Bulgaria were covered, with the sample formed by quotas for gender, age, education and type of settlement. The survey is nationally representative of the adult population of the country, with a maximum statistical error of ±3.5% at a 95% confidence level. The survey is part of the independent research program of “Gallup International Balkan“ and is financed with its own funds.
Any result of a sociological survey can be immediately converted into won parliamentary seats. Our survey shows 86 for Radev's “Progressive Bulgaria”, 70 – for GERB, 33 for PP-DB, 22 for DPS and 19 for “Vazrazhdane”, explained in the program “Offensive with Lyubo Ognyanov” analyst Professor Mikhail Konstantinov from “Gallup Balkan International”.
“The first and second are expected to have about 150 mandates in total. That is, slightly below the constitutional majority. But 150 mandates is trouble-free governance. These two political formations have no ideological differences, they have small nuances”, believes Prof. Konstantinov.
“Radev and Borisov are not personally offended. They say they will not form a coalition, but there are no personal insults. Look at the conversation between the first and the third - it is disgusting”, commented Prof. Konstantinov.
The second option is the first plus the third. This is about 125 MPs, the Gallup survey also shows.
“The possible combinations are first and second or first and third. I don't see the others as a combination, except situationally for changing the Supreme Judicial Council”, said Prof. Konstantinov.
He expects there to be a coalition between the first and second. “If Radev, who will receive the first mandate, does not form a government, he will repeat the fate of the ITN. If he does not form a government, we are going to elections, which he will lose, because he will show that he cannot organize government”, believes Prof. Konstantinov.
“There are two numbers - 150 between the first and second, 125 between the first and third. They are the two key numbers around which the future coalition will revolve”, said Prof. Konstantinov.
“The combination between the first and the second has many defects, many shortcomings, but it is the only possible”, he believes.
The survey was conducted through a standardized face-to-face personal interview using tablets (TAPI). 820 adult citizens of Bulgaria were covered, with the sample formed by quotas for gender, age, education and type of settlement. The survey is nationally representative of the adult population of the country, with the maximum statistical error being ±3.5% at a 95% guarantee probability. The survey is part of the independent research program of “Gallup International Balkan“ and is financed with its own funds.