Russia is conducting military operations against Bulgaria, while fear of Moscow’s reaction is preventing the authorities from taking a clear position. Former Defense Minister Nikolay Svinarov told News.bg this in a comment on the drone strikes in the Black Sea and the risks facing shipping near the Bulgarian coast.
According to him, Russia is behind the series of attacks near Bulgarian territorial waters and the country’s exclusive economic zone. Svinarov believes that the reason Bulgarian institutions avoid categorical assessments is not a lack of information, but a political dependence on Moscow that has been passed down through generations.
“Let’s not anger Big Brother”This is how the former minister summed up the behavior that, in his view, continues to influence the decisions of the Bulgarian authorities. He distinguished between Russian citizens and the Kremlin’s policies, stressing that his criticism is directed at the actions of the Russian government.
The Black Sea is becoming increasingly risky for ships
Svinarov said that the transformation of the Black Sea into a war zone did not begin with the latest incidents. The war in Ukraine, however, has changed the conditions for shipping, and ordinary commercial transport is now facing risks characteristic of an armed conflict.
He also pointed to the container ship that sank off the Bulgarian coast. In his view, the case raises the question of what may remain in the water after such attacks, but Svinarov did not commit to an assessment of the specific cargo or of any immediate environmental danger.
The former minister believes that the damage is not limited to ships flying the Bulgarian flag. The Black Sea is an important transport corridor, and fear of further attacks could reduce its use and affect all coastal states.
Counter-drone defense remains an unresolved issue
According to Svinarov, Bulgaria has fallen behind in developing modern counter-drone defense. He defined the problem, however, as more than merely technical. In his words, the state must first determine which threats are the most serious and what capabilities the armed forces need.
Svinarov said that the country lacks a sufficiently clear and shared national doctrine to guide political decisions and the development of the army. Military equipment, he said, must follow from political priorities rather than be acquired without a consistent strategy.
He noted that modernization is not limited to purchasing new fighter jets. Trained service members, preparation and training programs tailored to the equipment the army will use are also necessary.
Article 4 or Article 5 of NATO
Svinarov sees no grounds for invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which concerns collective defense. He believes, however, that Bulgaria could request consultations with its allies under Article 4 and raise the issue of joint protection for commercial shipping.
According to him, convening a meeting alone will not be enough if it is not followed by concrete action. The interview did not specify any decision to initiate such a procedure or a deadline for undertaking a similar initiative.
Svinarov did not give a definitive answer as to whether Bulgaria is already involved in the war. He said that when targets on Bulgarian territory or in its immediate vicinity are being fired upon, the term “hybrid war” no longer fully describes the situation.
Sources: news.bg