November 2026 begins with increased geomagnetic activity, and in the coming weeks several more periods are expected in which the solar wind can cause disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field. According to the forecast of the US Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA SWPC), more active days are expected on November 1, 9, 17 and 18.
However, this does not mean that there will necessarily be magnetic storms on all the dates listed. The forecast is preliminary and subject to change depending on the development of solar activity.
When are magnetic storms expected in November 2026?
According to the 27-day NOAA forecast, published on October 26, the most significant geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of the period is expected on October 31, when a weak magnetic storm of category G1 is possible.
The updated short-term forecast allows for similar activity on November 1. The reason is the impact of high-speed solar wind flows that reach the Earth from coronal holes on the Sun.
For the rest of the period under consideration, NOAA indicates the following dates with a probability of increased activity:
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November 1: possible conditions for a weak G1 magnetic storm.
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November 9: an active geomagnetic situation is expected, but without a confirmed forecast for a magnetic storm.
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November 17-18: a new increase in geomagnetic activity under the influence of the solar wind is possible.
For the remaining days until November 21, the forecast predicts mostly calm or slightly disturbed conditions. As of October 30, there is still no reliable forecast for specific magnetic storms in the last week of November.
What will be the activity of the Sun?
In November, solar activity is expected to remain mostly low, but with a possibility of M-class eruptions. These are medium-intensity events that, under the right conditions, can cause short-term disruptions to radio communications.
However, not every solar eruption leads to a magnetic storm. For a more serious impact on the Earth's magnetic field, it is often necessary to direct a coronal mass ejection, a huge cloud of magnetized plasma, towards the planet.
Such clouds can reach Earth in approximately one to several days. That is why short-term forecasts are more reliable than calendars that indicate magnetic storms for a whole month in advance.
In November, an additional factor will be coronal holes. These are areas in the solar atmosphere from which faster solar wind is emitted. When these flows interact with the Earth's magnetosphere, they can cause geomagnetic disturbances even without a large solar flare.
How is the strength of magnetic storms measured?
Geomagnetic activity is assessed using the planetary index Kp, which is measured on a scale from 0 to 9. Values below 5 are not classified as a magnetic storm according to the NOAA system.
A Kp of 5 is considered a weak G1 storm, and a Kp of 6 is a G2 event. Stronger storms reach G3, G4 and G5, with the latter category denoting extreme geomagnetic conditions.
Strong magnetic storms can affect satellite systems, GPS navigation, radio communications and, under certain circumstances, power transmission infrastructure. They also increase the likelihood of the aurora borealis being observed at lower latitudes.
In Bulgaria, the northern lights are a rare occurrence and usually require significantly stronger geomagnetic activity than the currently expected weak disturbances.
Do magnetic storms affect human health?
Magnetic storms are often associated with headaches, fatigue, sleep disturbances and fluctuations in blood pressure. However, scientific evidence for a direct causal relationship between common geomagnetic disturbances and such symptoms remains limited and contradictory.
Some observational studies have examined possible associations between geomagnetic activity and cardiovascular events, but the results are not sufficient to claim that magnetic storms cause specific health complaints.
For people on the surface of the Earth, magnetic storms do not pose the same type of radiation risk as might occur for astronauts or certain aviation routes during strong solar radiation events.