On November 3, Americans will vote in the midterm elections that will determine who will control Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump's presidency. Democrats need to win four seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate to overturn the current fragile Republican majority of 218 to 214 seats in the House and 53 to 47 in the Senate. Polls give Democrats the edge to win the House of Representatives, while the Senate race remains too close to predict a winner.
Trump's approval rating is at a record low now, and against this backdrop, the election could change the political situation in Washington. Even if Democrats win one or both houses of Congress, however, Trump will retain his veto power and broad executive powers, limiting Democrats' ability to pass significant legislative changes.
Analysts, political strategists and economists interviewed by Reuters said that in 2027 there will likely be clashes between the two parties over raising the national debt ceiling and financing the government, regardless of the election results.
Reuters also lists the main scenarios and the possible consequences for Trump's presidency, Congress and the economy from the midterm elections.
Democrats win the House of Representatives, but not the Senate
Scenario A: Democratic majority of 5 to 20 seats in the House
Democrats gain control of the House committees representatives, the right to demand documents and testimony through subpoenas, and the ability to investigate Trump and his administration.
Trump administration officials against whom Congress has issued subpoenas may refuse to comply with them, as the Justice Department, run by Trump appointees, is unlikely to take action to enforce them.
Trump retains his veto power and broad authority over tariffs, immigration, and foreign policy. On October 20, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said that the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would be able to do “very little” to block Trump's agenda.
Senate Republicans are blocking most of the Democrats' priorities.
Democrats can pass bills with mostly symbolic and political messages on topics such as health care, abortion rights, housing policy, and artificial intelligence data centers, but few, if any, of them are likely to become law.
In 2027, disputes over the national debt ceiling, budget battles, and threats of a government shutdown loom.
Implications: Democrats will be able to investigate Trump and his administration through hearings and subpoenas, but they will not be able to substantially change policy. Analysts expect a sharp clash over the government debt limit by the summer, which could shake financial markets and unsettle investors. Trump, who has largely bypassed Congress over the past two years, is likely to continue to push his agenda through executive orders.
Scenario B: Democratic majority of 21 to 40 seats in the House
The Democratic leadership would have more freedom to overcome disagreements within their own party and push through their priorities.
A larger group of newly elected congressmen, including more progressives, could strengthen calls for Trump's impeachment.
Some Republicans may be more inclined to oppose Trump on issues like tariffs and war with Iran, which polls show are unpopular.
A larger Democratic majority could strengthen their position in budget and debt ceiling negotiations and help them win concessions from Republicans.
Democrats will have more votes and a better chance of passing bills on health care, abortion rights, and the cost of living, forcing Senate Republicans to take difficult policy positions on the ballot.
Impact: Democrats are likely to pass bills to show they want to fight inflation, limit Trump's military powers, and oppose the construction of data centers. However, significant legislative breakthroughs remain unlikely, as Senate Republicans can block these initiatives and Trump has a veto. The president will be able to continue to govern through executive action, and a dispute over the national debt ceiling remains likely.
2. Democrats win the House, but the Senate is split 50-50.
Republicans retain control of the Senate because Vice President J.D. Vance has the deciding vote there in the event of a tie. A handful of senators willing to break away from their own party, including Democrat John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and some moderate Republicans, could become key figures in contested votes. Battles over the debt ceiling and budget are becoming more unpredictable because neither party can afford internal retreats. This would give a small group of senators the ability to determine the fate of Senate deals or delay their achievement. Consequences: Washington could fall into a political deadlock, in which a few wavering senators would decide the outcome of disputes over the budget, the judiciary, and policy. Trump should be able to get Senate confirmation of his nominations thanks to Vance's casting vote. His policies on tariffs, immigration, and foreign relations would remain largely without effective parliamentary control. 3. Democrats win both the House and Senate Control of the Senate could have more serious consequences than control of the House alone, since it is the Senate that approves the appointments of judges, cabinet members, and ambassadorial nominees. Scenario A: Democratic majority of 2 seats in the Senate Democrats take control of the Senate committees and set the chamber's agenda. They are likely to block many of Trump's judicial nominations and may try to delay filling a potential vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court until the 2028 presidential election. Republicans are likely to rush through the appointments before the new Congress takes office in January. Trump reserves the right to veto and its executive powers. Passing major legislative changes remains difficult, as most bills require 60 votes to overcome the Senate rule that allows a minority to block or delay legislative initiatives. Control of both chambers gives Democrats a stronger hand in negotiations over the debt ceiling and budget, although the risk of serious financial and political clashes remains significant. Implications: Democrats gain significant opportunities to limit Trump's appointments, but their small majority, procedural hurdles, and presidential vetoes limit their ability to make major legislative gains. Scenario B: Democratic majority of 4 to 6 seats in the Senate The party leadership becomes less dependent on the position of individual senators and can afford some of them to vote against the party line. Democrats have better chances to pass bills on tariffs, data centers, health care, the cost of living, and limits on the president's military powers, forcing Trump to veto them. These conflicts over the presidential veto will help Democrats shape their messages for the 2028 election campaign. The approval of judicial appointments will be largely blocked. Implications: Democrats will have a better chance to pass bills addressing voter concerns about high prices, health care costs, and data centers, as well as increasing pressure on Republicans. Trump, however, will still be able to block most significant legislative initiatives. With a larger majority, voters will likely expect Democrats to solve their economic problems, not just oppose Trump. The president, in turn, will have a political opponent on whom to shift some of the blame for the problems in Washington. He could potentially blame the Democrats for the economic difficulties and high prices, arguing that since they control Congress, they bear at least as much responsibility for the state of the economy as the Republicans. Scenario B: Democratic majority of 8 or more seats in the Senate Democrats can claim that they have received a clear electoral mandate and argue that voters have rejected the way Trump has governed during the first half of his second term. They will enter negotiations with Republicans and the White House on government funding and the debt ceiling from a stronger position, as they will have more votes to pass the relevant bills. However, Democrats still will not have enough votes to overcome the procedural obstacle in the Senate, override a presidential veto, or convict Trump in an impeachment trial if Democrats in the House of Representatives decide to initiate such a procedure. Implications: Democrats will have greater influence, but their ability to govern effectively will remain limited by the presidential veto, the procedural obstacle, and shared political responsibility for the state of the the economy. 4. Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate While this scenario seems unlikely due to the large number of Republican representatives in the House who protect vulnerable positions, it still remains possible. Implications: Trump and Republicans will declare such an outcome as a new mandate of confidence for the policies of the Republican president in the last two years of his administration. With unified Republican control of Washington, Trump will feel even more confident and will face few restrictions from Congress. He will be able to continue to push through the appointments of judges and other officials. The risk of serious conflicts over the budget, government shutdown and the national debt ceiling will be lower. Translated from English: Gabriela Golemanska Source: www.bta.bg