PSG and Real Madrid are the only two teams with a perfect record after four rounds of the league phase of the Champions League. Both sides have 12 points, while Slovakian club Slovan Bratislava are the only team yet to win a point. After four matches, their goal difference is 1:17.
PSG are also impressive in attack. The French club have scored 20 goals, including four-goal victories over Manchester City and Barcelona. Real Madrid also remain unbeaten and occupy a leading position alongside the reigning champions.
After PSG and Real Madrid, the top eight is completed by Arsenal, Como, Barcelona, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Liverpool. Finishing among the top eight is important because it guarantees direct qualification for the round of 16. Teams finishing from ninth to 24th will have to go through a playoff, while those in 25th to 36th place will be eliminated from the tournament.
The only major favourite currently outside the top eight is Bayern Munich. The German champions are still in a position to reach the knockout stage, whether directly or via the playoff round.
Football Meets Data’s statistical model considers Real Madrid and PSG almost certain to finish in the top eight. Real Madrid’s chances are rated at 98.8 per cent, while PSG’s stand at 98 per cent. Arsenal are given an 89.7 per cent chance, and Barcelona 84.2 per cent.
According to the forecast, Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Liverpool and Club Brugge are the most likely teams to join this group. The Belgian side have nine points and would become one of the biggest surprises if they retain a place among the top eight. Before the end of the league phase, Brugge will host Liverpool and Bodø/Glimt and travel to Napoli and Stuttgart.
Among the teams from the five strongest European leagues currently outside the top eight are Napoli, Villarreal, RB Leipzig, Lens and Lille. Predictions suggest that Lens and Lille are the most at risk of ending their European campaigns at this stage.
Bodø/Glimt, LASK Linz, Feyenoord, Shakhtar Donetsk, Viking, AEK Athens, Slavia Prague, Sabah and Slovan are also expected to be among the eliminated teams. Four rounds remain, leaving room for changes both at the top and in the knockout qualification places.