Russia has gained a strategic advantage in the air war with the emergence of a new generation of jet attack drones, the Atlantic Council estimates. According to the analysis, in the last weeks of the summer such drones began to appear in large numbers over Kiev and other Ukrainian cities.
The jet drones are more than twice as fast as previous Russian models. They also have technological improvements that increase navigation accuracy while making them more difficult to intercept.
“This air race is entering a new phase, in which Russia has a strategic advantage“, the analysis states.
Faster drones, more expensive interception
A Ukrainian analysis of downed jet drones has found the presence of numerous foreign components. Among the countries cited are China, Germany and the United States.
As it develops specialized interceptors and increases their production, Ukraine relies on fighter jets, air-to-air missiles and airborne guns. The Atlantic Council believes this approach works, but it is too expensive to be a sustainable solution for sustained attacks.
The need for cheaper means is made even greater by the expected expansion of Russian drone production next year.
The analysis claims that Russia is using its air superiority to launch round-the-clock attacks on Kiev. Among the targets listed are schools, hospitals, residential buildings, business centers, gas stations, supermarkets, internet centers and bridges over the Dnieper River.
Production is moving underground
A Ukrainian analysis of recent satellite images suggests that Russia is following the Iranian model and moving drone production underground. This could make it more difficult to destroy the devices before they are used and to interrupt production cycles.
“This would further limit Ukraine's ability to interrupt production cycles or destroy the drones before they are used“, the analysis states.
The Atlantic Council has identified the emergence of a Russian drone fleet as a serious and growing threat to all of Ukraine. According to the organization, the development could have consequences beyond the country, as Kiev seeks to establish itself as a security partner, not just a recipient of aid.
Risk for the Middle East
Earlier this year, Ukraine offered the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan assistance in shooting down Iranian drones. This has led to security agreements with several Gulf states and highlighted Ukraine's experience in drone warfare, the analysis says.
The Atlantic Council warns that Russian jet drones could reduce the value of this advantage. Ukraine claims that Russia has already given blueprints for such drones to North Korea, and the analysis suggests that Iran could also obtain the information it needs to modernize its own program.
Possible measures include investment in the joint development and production of Ukrainian interceptor drones, tighter controls on the export of dual-use technologies, and sanctions against logistics chains, banks, brokers, and aircraft engine manufacturers involved in supplies to Russia and Iran.
Sources: unian.net, atlanticcouncil.org