The agreement between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for the supply of Russian diesel has raised concerns that Washington may again limit the provision of intelligence information to Ukraine. Such speculation is reported by the German publication WELT, which examines the possible consequences of the rapprochement between the two countries for the war in Ukraine.
There is currently no official confirmation that the US administration is preparing to terminate intelligence support for Kiev. The concerns arise against the backdrop of Trump's decision to make an exception to the sanctions regime against Russia to allow supplies of diesel fuel to the US and world markets.
On October 9, Trump announced that after a telephone conversation with Putin, an agreement had been reached for Russia to immediately provide more than 300,000 tons of diesel. An additional 500,000 tons are expected in November, followed by another million tons. The US president has indicated that Moscow could deliver another three million tons in a relatively short period of time, depending on the state of Russian refineries.
To implement the deal, the US Treasury Department issued a temporary permit for the sale, transportation, unloading and import of Russian diesel until April 7, 2027. This is a significant exception to the restrictions imposed on the Russian energy sector due to the war in Ukraine.
The decision caused a sharp reaction in Kiev. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the authorization of Russian energy exports as an investment in the continuation of the war. According to him, the revenues from fuel sales will provide additional financial resources to Moscow.
Zelensky also criticized the fact that the agreement was reached while US representatives were holding talks with a Ukrainian delegation about the possibilities of ending the war. According to Reuters, the negotiations in Miami were attended by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as well as representatives of Ukraine, Europe and NATO.
Guarantees for Ukraine's security, its economic recovery after the war and the possibilities of future accession to the European Union were discussed. According to Axios, the Ukrainian side was not informed in advance of Washington's intention to ease sanctions on Russian diesel.
Additional tension is being caused by US demands that Ukraine stop strikes on Russian oil refineries. In recent months, Ukrainian drones have caused significant damage to Russian oil infrastructure, leading to difficulties in fuel production and supplies.
Trump has repeatedly called on Zelensky to stop these attacks, arguing that they would have consequences for international energy markets. According to Axios, American officials believe that the Ukrainian president has repeatedly ignored Washington's requests on this issue.
The Ukrainian head of state said that Kiev was ready to stop strikes on Russian refineries if Moscow, in turn, stopped attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. However, such a mutual agreement has not yet been reached.
The agreement with Putin comes at a time when Trump is under increased domestic political pressure due to high fuel prices. The rise in diesel prices is affecting the transportation sector, agriculture and consumer prices in the US, and the midterm elections for Congress are coming up on November 3.
According to analysts quoted by the Associated Press, additional Russian supplies are unlikely to lead to a permanent decrease in prices. The reason is that the problems on the international market are related not only to the available quantities of crude oil, but also to the limitations in the capacity for its processing.
Against this background, a possible new limitation of American intelligence support would have serious consequences for Ukraine. The information provided by the US is of great importance for monitoring Russian military actions and for the ability of Ukrainian forces to respond to threats.
However, there is a significant difference between the concerns commented on in the German media and a real political decision by Washington. As of October 10, there is no confirmed information that Trump has ordered a new suspension of intelligence sharing with Kiev.
However, the Russian diesel deal already raises questions about the future of American policy towards Moscow and the possibility that Washington's economic interests could influence its support for Ukraine.