The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for the growth of the Bulgarian economy in 2026 from 2.8 to 2.6 percent. At the same time, the Fund raised the expected average annual inflation from 3.8 to 4.9 percent. The data are from the October edition of the report “World Economic Prospects“.
For 2027, the IMF expects growth to accelerate to 2.7 percent, compared to a previous forecast of 2.5 percent. However, the inflation expectation for next year has also been increased – from 3.7 to 4.8 percent.
Larger current account deficit
The Fund has revised its forecast for Bulgaria's current account deficit significantly upwards. For 2026, it is expected to reach 8 percent of gross domestic product, compared to a previous estimate of 4 percent. For 2027, the forecast is for a deficit of 6.6 percent of GDP instead of the previous 3.2 percent.
Expectations for the labor market remain unchanged. Unemployment is forecast to decline from 3.6 percent in 2025 to 3.4 percent in 2026 and 3.3 percent in 2027.
Discrepancy with the Ministry of Finance's forecast
The IMF's growth forecast for this year is more cautious than the Ministry of Finance's autumn assessment. The finance ministry expects the economy to grow by 3 percent in 2026 and by 2.5 percent in 2027.
„More favorable than expected reporting data in the first half“ are among the reasons for the increase in the forecast for 2026, the Ministry of Finance says.The ministry forecasts average annual inflation of 4.8 percent in 2026 and 4 percent in 2027, measured by the harmonized index of consumer prices. The indicators are not fully comparable with those of the IMF, whose table for Bulgaria uses the average annual change in the consumer price index.
Bulgaria remains above the eurozone average
The IMF expects the Bulgarian economy to grow faster than the eurozone, for which it forecasts growth of 1.1 percent and inflation of 3.1 percent in 2026. For 2027, expectations for the currency union are for growth of 1.2 percent and inflation of 2.8 percent.
Among other assessments for Bulgaria, Fitch Ratings forecasts growth of 2.8 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027. The World Bank maintained its forecast for 2026 at 2.6 percent, but lowered its expectation for next year to 2.6 percent. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects 2.7 and 2.5 percent, respectively.
At the regional level, the IMF expects the Romanian economy to contract by 0.5 percent in 2026, while the forecast for Serbia has been raised to 3.3 percent growth. For Greece, the fund maintains its growth expectation of 1.8 percent.
Sources: bta.bg