The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2027 from 3.2% to 3.4%, maintaining the growth expectation of 3.1% in 2026. At the same time, the forecast for the eurozone remained unchanged - 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.
The data were published in the October report “World Economic Prospects“. According to the IMF, higher energy prices and weak consumer confidence continue to limit activity in the currency union.
“The resilience of the global economy masks growing disparities between countries“, the IMF notes.Higher inflation and unemployment in the euro area
The Fund has significantly raised its expectations for average annual inflation in the euro area. The forecast is now for 3.1% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, compared to 2.6% and 2.2% in the April estimate, respectively.
The IMF expects core inflation - excluding more volatile components - to return to around 2% only by mid-2028. The unemployment forecast has been raised to 6.3% in each of the two years.
The expected euro area current account surplus has been reduced to 1.2% of gross domestic product in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027.
Shifts among leading economies
The unchanged overall forecast for the euro area masks differences between individual countries. For 2026, the IMF raised its estimates for Germany, Italy and Spain. The expected growth of Germany has been increased from 0.8% to 1.3%, of Italy - from 0.5% to 0.8%, and of Spain - from 2.1% to 2.5%.
For France, the forecast has been halved - from 0.9% to 0.4%. The assessment for Bulgaria in 2026 has also been reduced. For 2027, however, the Fund has a higher forecast for the Bulgarian economy.
For next year, the prospects have also improved for Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Slovenia, Estonia, Cyprus and Malta. Meanwhile, forecasts for Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Croatia, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Latvia have been downgraded.
The United States, China and India remain the main drivers
Global growth is expected to slow from 3.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026 before accelerating to 3.4% in 2027. The IMF warns that growth is concentrated in fewer economies that are less affected by the energy shock or benefiting from investments in artificial intelligence.
Some 32 economies now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 in the April forecast, and estimates for nearly 47% of countries have been downgraded.
The United States economy is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2026 and 2027. For China, the forecast is for growth of 4.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, and for India - 7% in both years on a fiscal year basis.
Global inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026, then decline to 4.1% in 2027. The average oil price is forecast at $95.74 per barrel in 2026, and $87.39 next year.
Sources: bta.bg