The world economy will grow by 3.1% in 2026, but its sustainability is under pressure from energy shocks, high public debt and the investment boom in artificial intelligence. This was stated by the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand. The forecast for global growth remains unchanged compared to October 2025.
According to Georgieva, the world economy is moving under the influence of two opposing forces. The energy shock slows activity and raises prices, while the boom in artificial intelligence stimulates production, trade and investment. Expectations for economies affected by military conflicts have been lowered, while forecasts for countries developing and producing AI technologies, including the United States, China and India, have been improved.
Energy and AI maintain inflationary pressures
Energy supply problems continue to put pressure on prices. Shipping risks and limited oil and natural gas refining capacity further complicate the situation. Georgieva also pointed to the impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon on food prices, which is hitting low-income households the hardest.
AI is already increasing productivity, but building the necessary infrastructure requires huge investments. Some of them are financed through loans, which could temporarily increase inflationary pressures. The IMF also warns of a possible rise in youth unemployment, a shrinking tax base and new risks to financial stability.
Call for more sustainable public finances
Rising public debt remains a serious problem for both rich and developing economies. In low-income countries, higher debt service costs and declining international aid are limiting development funds. Against this backdrop, yields on ten-year US, German and Japanese government bonds have reached their highest levels since 2002, 2009 and 1996, respectively.
“The US needs to save more, China needs to consume more and Europe needs to invest more“, said Kristalina Georgieva.According to her, the US needs fiscal consolidation, China needs to limit state intervention in economic decisions and improve social protection, and Europe needs to deepen economic integration. Georgieva supported the tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
The IMF has $240 billion in outstanding loans
Kristalina Georgieva announced that the IMF's outstanding loans and undrawn credit commitments amount to $240 billion. Unused lending capacity is approximately three times larger, and preferential lending reaches $36 billion - about four times the historical average.
The fund's managing director warned that the time between the discovery of a vulnerability in an information system and its use in a cyberattack is already shrinking from months to hours, and in the future it could reach minutes. She called for closer international cooperation in the face of technological change, geopolitical conflicts and pressures on global economic stability.
Sources: news.bg