A serious military defeat or severe economic problems could create conditions for a coup in Russia and the forcible removal of Vladimir Putin, believes Ukrainian lieutenant colonel Taras Berezovets. According to him, internal contradictions and the struggle for power could gradually weaken the current system in the Kremlin.
Berezovets is the head of the department for international military cooperation of the Territorial Defense Forces Command of Ukraine. His statement was quoted by 24 Channel, and the information was published by “Focus“.
Military and security structures may intervene
“Then I would call the base scenario a possible coup with the participation of the security forces and the military“, Berezovets said.
According to him, the decisive factor could be the moment when the Russian leadership realizes that continuing the war only increases losses, without bringing the desired result closer. In such a development, internal conflicts could escalate into a struggle for control of the state.
Berezovets recalls the rebellion of the leader of the PMC “Wagner“ Yevgeny Prigozhin and his march towards Moscow. According to the Ukrainian officer, these events have shown that the Russian system of government is not completely protected from internal upheavals.
A quick fall of the regime is not expected
At the same time, Berezovets does not predict a quick collapse of Russian power. He defines the continued existence of the current system as a base scenario, which will gradually weaken.
According to him, control mechanisms and the suppression of the opposition help the regime maintain stability. He also points to the lack of ideological restrictions characteristic of the Soviet Union as a factor that allows the modern Russian system to function longer.
Berezovets assumes that Russia can continue to move by inertia even with the gradual depletion of resources. Therefore, he does not necessarily associate the possible change with a sudden collapse or a rapid change of power.
In his assessment, the system may reach a turning point at which a certain crisis will cause its collapse. However, this process may take a long time. In this sense, a coup d'état remains a possible scenario for Russia, but not a guaranteed prediction.
Sources: focus-news.net, 24tv.ua