Israel faces weeks, perhaps months, of political uncertainty after final results from early elections showed no clear winner. Neither of the two main blocs - one led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party and the other by the centrist Yasser party - has a clear majority. his main rival Gadi Eisenkot - failed to secure the necessary majority of 61 seats to form a government in the 120-seat Israeli parliament, write in an analysis for CNN by Tel Shalev, Kara Fox, Andrew Carey and Henry Patterson.
So how could a new government be formed? The task certainly does not seem easy, as deep-rooted political and ideological divisions make the creation of any seemingly simple coalition nearly impossible.
Still, it is achievable - even if the result is a fragile alliance that will only last about a year. If party leaders fail to find a solution within the 12 weeks they have, Israelis will have to go to the polls again.
Here are a few possible scenarios that could prevent that.
Scenario 1: Opposition government
On paper, the surest path for the opposition to oust Netanyahu from power is built on cooperation between Jews and Arabs. And that is precisely the biggest obstacle facing it. Two of the leaders of the right-wing parties in the opposition bloc - former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman - oppose any government that depends on the two Arab parties in parliament (the "United List" and "Raam"), whether it is a question of participation in the coalition or of outside support for a minority government.
The positions of the two leaders hardened after the attack led by "Hamas" on October 7, 2023. In the history of Israel, only one government has included the full participation of an Arab party. "Raam" was part of an eight-party coalition that managed to oust Netanyahu from power in 2021, but it collapsed after only a year in office.
Even without forming a government, the opposition parties could cooperate and use their parliamentary majority to replace the speaker of the Knesset and fill other key positions, thus limiting the possibilities of Netanyahu's caretaker government while it remains in power. However, the prospects for forming a coalition to replace him as Israel's leader remain extremely complex and politically heated.
Scenario 2: National unity government
Another possible scenario envisages the collapse of the two blocs in favor of a national unity government. It would certainly include the "Likud" party Netanyahu, along with some of his current coalition partners, and crucially, at least one party from the opposition bloc.
In that case, Netanyahu is thought to be willing to part ways with far-right National Security Minister Ben-Gvir, but not with far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and the ultra-Orthodox parties. However, Eisenkot rules out entering government with Netanyahu, as changing his mind would be seen as a betrayal by many Israelis desperate to see the end of "Bibi".
Scenario 3: A Netanyahu Bloc Government with Breakaways
Another scenario would see Netanyahu encouraging opposition MPs to defect to his camp. All the leaders of the opposition bloc parties - Eisenkot, Bennett, Lieberman and Yair Golan - have said they will not participate in a government with him, and since Netanyahu's bloc is eight seats short, attracting eight individual members of parliament is an extremely difficult task.
Scenario 4: New elections
While these options are being discussed behind the scenes, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog will hold a series of public consultations with the leaders of the parties that have entered parliament. After listening to their opinions, he will assign one of these leaders the task of forming a government. The Arab parties are expected to support Eisenkot, so the leader of "Yashar" may get the first chance.
The one who is assigned the task will have 28 days to complete it, and if necessary, the deadline can be extended by another 14 days. If the attempt fails, the president will invite a second leader to try. He will have only 28 days to reach an agreement.
A majority of Knesset members can then ask the president to assign the task to a third candidate, who will have 14 days to form a coalition. If none of these attempts lead to a breakthrough, new elections will be called.
The man who seems to be in the best position to do so is Netanyahu. As caretaker prime minister, he can afford to wait: if his main rival, Eisenkot, gets the first chance and fails, then the mandate will likely pass to Netanyahu himself. And if he fails, the political impasse will almost certainly lead Israel to another election, with Netanyahu remaining at the helm of a caretaker government for months until a new cabinet is formed.
New elections, which would happen next spring at the earliest, are a very real possibility, as the current results threaten to return Israel to a state of political paralysis. And that would mean the seventh parliamentary election in eight years.
Source: news.bg