European allies fear that Republican defeat in the US midterm elections could lead to new pressure from President Donald Trump on NATO, including by withdrawing US troops from Europe and changing policy towards Ukraine and Russia. This was reported by Politico, citing five diplomats from the alliance who requested anonymity.
According to three of the diplomats, Trump could use foreign policy if he is constrained by Congress on domestic policy issues. Among the options being discussed is the withdrawal of thousands more US troops from Europe. Diplomats have also warned of possible cuts to US funding for NATO, curbs on the PURL arms program for Ukraine and closer ties with Russia.
Review of US forces at centre of concerns
The Pentagon is conducting a six-month review of US forces and their deployment in Europe. It began in June and is expected to be completed in December. Reuters reported that among the options being considered is a withdrawal of about 25,000 troops from the continent, where the United States has approximately 80,000 troops.
Washington has already announced that it will reduce the number of fighter jets, surveillance drones and naval forces it can deploy in a crisis in Europe. In June, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the aim was for European allies to take the lead in the continent’s conventional defence. The Washington Post reported that European countries will have difficulty replacing some of the American capabilities.
The most serious gaps may be related to electronic warfare, air defense, intelligence and surveillance, aerial refueling, and logistics. For European allies, this is particularly sensitive given the war in Ukraine and growing concerns about Russian hybrid actions on NATO’s eastern flank.
Warning of a possible deal with Moscow
Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official, warned that various issues could be tied up in a general agreement with Moscow.
The White House defended the president’s policy. Deputy Spokesperson Olivia Wells told Politico that Trump has done more for NATO than any other president, citing allies’ commitments to increase defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035, the U.S. military presence in Greenland and efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Not all allies accept the most alarming scenarios. Montenegro’s Defense Minister Dragan Krapovic said that such assumptions have been made for a long time, but the United States’ withdrawal from NATO has not happened. He said Congress has the final say on reducing U.S. troops in Europe.
Sources: politico.eu, washingtonpost.com, investing.com