Russia’s military satellite “Kosmos 2612” may have rehearsed an attack during its dangerously close approach to ICEYE’s commercial X36 satellite in October. Meanwhile, two other Russian spacecraft from the same series are heading toward the orbital path of a second ICEYE satellite – X37.
“This looks like a rehearsal for an attack,” said Greg Gyllinger, a senior space analyst at the US company Integrity ISR, which trains the US Space Force. In his words, this is “the most aggressive position” he has seen Russia take toward another country’s satellite.
The incident attracted attention because of X36’s purpose. The satellite is operated by Finland-based ICEYE and provides radar imagery to Western governments and military structures, including Ukraine. Three space technology specialists describe the approach as one of the closest known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low Earth orbit.
A maneuver covering hundreds of kilometers in just a few days
US Deputy Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno said after the incident in mid-October that “Kosmos 2612” had carried out “deliberate and dangerously close maneuvers to a commercial satellite.” According to him, the behavior was “consistent with operations involving the use of weapons in orbit.”
At the beginning of October, the Russian spacecraft was hundreds of kilometers behind X36. It then reduced the distance to less than one kilometer over several days, with some analysts estimating the closest distance at several hundred meters or less. Kosmos 2612 subsequently moved away to approximately 400 kilometers.
Gyllinger believes the actions may have been related to testing capabilities for a kinetic attack. In his view, such a close maneuver would not have been necessary to gather intelligence or conduct electronic jamming.
“Kosmos 2612” is publicly classified as a satellite for servicing and inspecting other spacecraft. Russia launched six military satellites from the series in April, and in May four of them were positioned close to X36, according to analysts. After ICEYE moved its satellite, further Russian maneuvers followed.
Germany warns of different scenarios
Major General Michael Traut, commander of Germany’s space forces, said that such close approaches could be used for inspection, surveillance or jamming, depending on the spacecraft’s technical capabilities.
“We must consider the entire range of possible consequences – from temporarily disrupting a satellite’s operations to permanently disabling it,” Traut said.However, the German general stressed that the ability to carry out such maneuvers does not in itself prove that Russia is preparing or rehearsing an attack. The objective cannot be determined solely on the basis of publicly available orbital data.
Anne Stevens, head of ICEYE’s US operations, said that X36 had been and would continue to be an effective satellite. She noted that the company’s constellation of radar satellites is resilient in the event of possible interference.
Two Russian satellites from the same series are already taking increasingly suitable positions to approach X37, according to US space object tracking company COMSPOC. Both X36 and X37 are registered in the United States, public space object catalogs show.
Moscow has repeatedly warned that Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine could become legitimate targets for retaliatory action. According to Andrew Turner, the proximity to X36 increases the potential for both deliberate and accidental interaction with dangerous consequences.
Sources: news.bg, ca.marketscreener.com