Kremlin continues with "rattling" of nuclear weapons - so as to coincide with the main political discussions in the West. This is part of a Kremlin control campaign to influence Western decisions. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) said on May 21 that the missile units of the Southern Military District (SMU) have begun the first stage of exercises with non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that the Russian Aerospace Forces will also exercise Iskander ballistic missiles. and "Dagger" aeroballistic missiles. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the preparations for these exercises on May 6.
A well-known Kremlin-awarded blogger specifically linked the exercises to Kremlin attempts to influence decisions in the West. This is particularly true of the recent discussions regarding restrictions on the use of weapons provided to Ukraine to strike military targets in Russia. This confirms the assessment of the ISW, which the Institute reminds of in today's analysis of the war in Ukraine.
This is a key element of hybrid warfare, a tactic that relies on the adversary voluntarily taking actions that are advantageous to Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated to the New York Times (NYT) on May 20 that Russia currently enjoys a safe haven on Russian territory from which to launch missile strikes and cluster bombs against Ukraine and launch offensive operations with forces , clustered in the international border area. Such is the case with the ongoing limited Russian offensive in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast.
ISW continues to assess that US and Western policies restricting Ukraine from striking military targets in Russia seriously compromise the ability to defend against current Russian offensive operations. Operations in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, or any area along the international border where Russian forces may choose to conduct offensive operations in the future.
Zelensky pointed out that the limited Russian offensive in northern Ukraine is achieving its goal of distracting attention from intensive Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. Zelensky said in an interview with "Reuters" published on May 20 that the situation in the northern part of Kharkiv region is now stable, but that "no one" does not pay attention to the wave of Russian offensive operations in Donbass in Chasov Yar (Bakhmut), Pokrovsk (Avdeevka) and Kurakhovo (west of Donetsk city).
Zelensky stated that the situation in the northern part of the Kharkiv region has been stable for about a week. This is consistent with the slowing pace of Russian advances in the directions of Liptsi (north of the city of Kharkiv) and Vovchansk after the first few days of relatively rapid tactical progress.
Russian forces have recently stepped up efforts to capture the operationally important town of Chasov Yar, west of Bakhmut, as the pace of operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast has slowed, underscoring how efforts in northern Kharkiv Oblast aim to withdraw and adjust Ukrainian forces and create opportunities for Russian forces elsewhere in the theater.
As ISW has consistently reported, the most immediate prospect for Russian forces remains Chasov Yar before US military aid arrives on the front lines on a large scale.
Russian authorities recently arrested the former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, Major General Ivan Popov, on fraud charges. Popov is largely responsible for the Russian defense against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 in the western Zaporozhye region.
The 235th Garrison Military Court reported that authorities arrested Popov on May 17 for grand larceny and will hold him in custody for two months.
Popov's lawyer said authorities investigated the case for eight months before arresting him.
A prominent Russian blogger, who claimed to have known about the arrest before it was officially announced, wrote that authorities had accused Popov of fraud worth 100 million rubles (about $1.1 million). Popov was involved in the sale of 2,000 tons of metal products intended for the construction of fortifications in the area of responsibility of the 58th Army in the Zaporozhye direction.
Selected Russian bloggers responded by praising Popov as a competent and respected military commander and expressing hope that the authorities would allow him to return to military service.
The Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, fired Popov in July 2023 after he raised concerns about the need for troop rotations in the western Zaporozhye region amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Popov claimed in a leaked audio that former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu fired him for persistent complaints about problems in the western Zaporozhye region.
The Kremlin is likely using the pattern of recent arrests of high-ranking officials on corruption charges in the Russian Ministry of Defense to cover up the real reasons for Popov's punishment almost 10 months after his conflict with the Russian military command and subsequent removal from his command post. Russian authorities probably did not want to publicly punish Popov in July 2023 for fear of a surge of public support for the competent commander. The Kremlin also probably did not want to draw attention to problems in the Russian military command after the Wagner group mutiny in June 2023.
Popov's arrest comes on the heels of numerous recent arrests of senior Defense Ministry officials on corruption charges who are said to be close to Shoigu.
Satellite images show that Ukrainian forces may have damaged the small missile ship "Zyklon" of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (Black Sea Fleet) in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on May 19. Satellite images from May 20 showed a damaged building, a rescue vessel and a floating crane near the port where Cyclone had docked on May 17.
Ukrainian and Russian sources reported on May 20 that Ukrainian forces on May 19 struck the Russian small missile ship of the "Zyklon Karahut" class. (project 22800) in the Sevastopol Bay with three US-supplied ATACMS missiles.
Ukraine's Southern Operational Command spokesman and Navy Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk said on May 21 that there are no more Russian Karakurt-class ships in the Black Sea following Ukraine's May 19 strike on the Zyklon.
Pletenchuk stated that "Cyclone" is "the last missile carrier" in occupied Crimea, and that Russian forces have probably moved everyone else to a base in Novorossiysk.
Pletenchuk stated that "Cyclone" has only been in service for a year and has yet to land a cruise missile strike. Pletenchuk stated that Russia planned to deploy five Karakurt-class ships in the Black Sea, but Ukrainian forces had previously destroyed the "Askold" in November 2023 that Russian forces moved the "Amur" and "Tucha" from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea and that the fifth unnamed ship is still under construction in Taganrog, Krasnodar Krai.