Advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi's chief of staff Mykhailo Podolyak said the US military aid has begun arriving on the front lines, but it will take "weeks" to reach "critical volumes".
Podolyak told Bloomberg in an article published on May 29 that Russian forces currently have an "absolute advantage" in the shells and missiles and that they would continue to try to advance along the front lines to take advantage of the time before American military assistance arrived in sufficient numbers from the front.
Podolyak warned that Russia may be trying to force Ukraine and its allies to freeze the current front line.
This is a situation that ISW has long appreciated would give the Russian military time to recover and prepare for a new aggression against Ukraine.
This is stated in the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) daily analysis.
Additional Western military aid is also likely to take time to reach the front lines and be properly integrated into Ukrainian frontline formations. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said on May 28 that the first "tens of thousands" 155mm artillery ammunition received through the Czech-led Ukraine Initiative will arrive in Ukraine within "days".
On May 29, Sweden announced its 16th and largest military aid package to Ukraine, worth 13.3 billion kroner (about $1.25 billion).
Sweden's Ministry of Defense (MoD) said the package includes ASC 890 air surveillance and control aircraft (the Swedish version of the Airborne Early Warning and Control Radar System) and RB 99-AMRAAM medium-range air-to-air missiles (which are also modified to be surface-to-air) to bolster Ukrainian air defense capabilities, additional 155mm artillery ammunition and "the entire Swedish stockpile" of Pansarbandvagn 302 armored vehicles, among other provisions.
Western officials have increasingly suggested they support Ukraine's right to use Western-supplied weapons to strike military targets in Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron said on May 28 at a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that France supports Ukraine's use of French-supplied weapons to strike Russian "missile-launching military sites". and other Russian "military sites from which Ukraine was attacked" on Russian territory.
Macron noted that Ukraine should not strike at "other military" or civilian targets in Russia, possibly referring to Russian sites not actively involved in attacks against Ukraine. Scholz said at the May 28 press conference that Germany recognizes Ukraine's right to defend itself against Russian strikes under international law, while the "regulations" on the use of weapons provided by the West are "within international law".
Scholz's recognition of Ukraine's right to strike military targets on Russian territory is notable because it frames the issue in terms of international legal norms, but ultimately does not reflect a change in Germany's position against granting Ukraine of long-range Taurus missiles or allowing Ukraine to strike military targets in Russia with German-supplied weapons.
Other Western countries have recently noted that they do not impose restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use weapons they have provided to strike military targets in Russia. Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie said on May 29 that Canada "has no conditions for using weapons supplied to Ukraine" and that he is not opposed to Ukraine using Canadian-supplied weapons against military targets in Russia.
Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cesary Tomczyk said Poland also has no restrictions on Ukraine's use of Polish-supplied weapons against military targets in Russia.
Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said that Finland had not placed "special restrictions" on its military aid to Ukraine, as Finland "assumes that it will be used in accordance with international law".
So far, 10 countries have expressed support for Ukraine's use of weapons they have provided to strike military targets on Russian territory with some or no restrictions: the United Kingdom, France, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Canada.
U.S. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh and U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby reiterated on May 28 that there is no change in the U.S. position against using U.S.-supplied weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
p>Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Russian presidential aide Alexei Dyumin as secretary of the State Council of Russia on May 29.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Dyumin would "resolve issues" on the functions of the State Council, which is a consultative body that charges and coordinates the implementation of domestic and foreign policy between the federal, regional and municipal authorities of Russia, including the occupation administrations in occupied Ukraine and assists in the preparation of the "strategic goals" of Russia.
Putin recently appointed Dyumin to the supervisory board of state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec and specifically tasked Dyumin with assisting Russia's efforts to provide the Russian military with the necessary weapons and equipment and oversee Russia's defense industrial base.
Some Russian bloggers expanded on the news of Dyumin's new position, and one Russian blogger said that Dyumin had "all the best qualities" of the scandalous Soviet director of the Soviet People's Commissariat for International Affairs (NKVD) Lavrentiy Beria.
The blogger is probably referring to Beria's lesser-known role in expanding the Soviet Union's defense output by mobilizing slave labor in the Soviet Union's Gulags - a system of labor camps and prisons that housed millions of criminals and political prisoners - hinting that Dyumin would similarly succeed in expanding Russian defense production.
Russia has blamed Ukraine for the recent several-month suspension of prisoner-of-war exchanges amid reports of widespread Russian abuse of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Kremlin-appointed Russian human rights commissioner Tatiana Moskalkova has accused Ukraine of making "excessive demands" that have caused a pause in prisoner-of-war exchanges over the past few months. He claims that Russia has done everything possible to maintain a dialogue with the Ukrainian government and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) regarding the issue of prisoners of war.
Ukrainian POW Treatment Coordination Staff representative Petro Yatsenko noted in November 2023 that Russia had previously suspended the exchange of prisoners of war in the summer of 2023 for an unspecified reason.
The last prisoner of war exchange between Russia and Ukraine took place on February 8, 2024 with the help of the United Arab Emirates.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) noted on May 29 that Ukraine had to open a third camp for Russian prisoners of war in part because of the "effective Russian blockade of the exchange" and in part due to the increasing number of Russian defectors becoming prisoners of war, consistent with several recent Ukrainian statements that it is Russian officials who oppose the continuation of prisoner-of-war exchanges.
In recent months since the last prisoner of war exchange, Russia has committed a series of apparent abuses against Ukrainian prisoners of war, including the immediate execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war and the use of prisoners of war as human shields on the battlefield (both violations of the Geneva Prisoner of War Convention) and alleged conducting " black market" for selling Ukrainian prisoners of war to Russian paramilitary groups. Russia also used a battalion consisting mainly of Ukrainian prisoners of war to fight in Ukraine, another flagrant violation of the Geneva Prisoner of War Convention.
Moskalkova's accusation that Ukraine is the country responsible for ending the prisoner exchange may be an attempt to rhetorically shift blame to Ukraine and cover up a litany of well-documented Russian abuses of Ukrainian prisoners of war, potentially stoking discontent in Ukrainian society or to discourage Western support for Ukraine. The Kremlin appears to be using the prisoner-of-war exchange policy as another rhetorical tool to undermine decision-making in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues his efforts to prepare the Russian population for a prolonged war. Putin said during a meeting of Russia's Council for Strategic Development and National Projects and the State Council's Commission on Socio-Economic Development on May 29 that all Russians must understand that they are living through a unique and historic moment and must "work like this , as if they were on the front lines" and "feel mobilized" Russia to achieve its goals. Kremlin officials often invoke the myths of the Great Patriotic War (World War II) to instill support and confidence in Russia's war effort. Putin probably intended to evoke similar memories of Soviet sacrifice and large-scale social and economic mobilization.
ISW previously assessed Putin's decision to appoint Andrei Belousov as Russia's defense minister as a significant development in his efforts to mobilize Russia's economy for a protracted war against Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO. It will likely continue various informational and rhetorical efforts to prepare Russian society for greater economic mobilization if it intends to pursue such an unpopular policy of further economic and social mobilization in the medium and long term.
Belarus ended its participation in the Cold War-era Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces (CFE) in Europe on May 28.
Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) stated that Belarus will resume implementation of the CFE Treaty if NATO member states also implement the CFE Treaty.
Russia withdrew from the CFE in 2023, and the corresponding suspension and withdrawal of Belarus and Russia from the treaty are likely part of ongoing attempts to deter the West from providing military aid to Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons , to strike military targets in Russia.
Russian officials criticized Moldova's suspension of the CFE Treaty in March 2024 and argued that it was against Russian interests.