Russia's war against Ukraine started in Crimea and may finished there. Experts believe that Ukraine can win the war against the Russian aggressor by inflicting a humiliating defeat on Vladimir Putin in Crimea when it receives Western F-16 fighter jets, Business Insider writes, UNIAN agency reported.
Ukraine's success in Crimea would be a serious blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Russia's defeat in Crimea would be not just a defeat, but a humiliation,” said Olga Khvostunova, a fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies. Over the past few weeks, the Ukrainian military has launched a series of successful attacks in the region, destroying several Russian air defense batteries and striking Belbek airfield near Sevastopol.
Elina Beketova, an expert on democracy at the Center for European Policy Analysis, noted that these strikes were “successful thanks to careful preparation and systematic work, the better capabilities of the defense forces, as well as the satellite and aerial intelligence provided of Ukraine from NATO allies“.
Although Ukraine lost its navy during the annexation of Crimea, it successfully destroyed the Russian Black Sea Fleet with the help of naval drones. This allowed grain to resume shipping across the Black Sea and forced the Russians to hide their ships away from the Ukrainian peninsula.
Maria Snegova, senior fellow for Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that Crimea “is key to Russia's access and operations in the Black Sea”. “Crimea provides an opportunity to direct power to the rest of the Black Sea, accordingly, the containment of Russian naval positions in Crimea is critically important for Ukraine”, the expert explained.
In this way, the attacks against the peninsula and the enemy fleet are aimed at depriving “Russian troops of the possibility of using the peninsula for attacks against mainland Ukraine”, as well as preventing support for Russian troops in the occupied territories in southern Ukraine.< /p>
Demolition of the illegally built Crimean bridge could be both a strategic and symbolic victory for Ukraine and a serious blow for Putin. Ukraine has already hit the facility twice, but has not yet managed to destroy it. According to experts, the destruction of the bridge is inevitable and only a matter of time, and the Russians know this very well.
Frederik Mertens, an analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, believes that by attacking air defenses in Crimea, Ukraine is “setting the stage” for future F-16 airstrikes. “Crimea is vulnerable. "The Russians have relatively limited room for maneuver on the peninsula... Putin has a lot to lose both politically and militarily." Russia has moved its most advanced S-500 air defense system to the peninsula to protect the region from aircraft. "Russia cannot afford to lose Crimea. This gives Ukraine the opportunity to use the threatening status of Crimea as a bargaining chip in future negotiations," Snegova said.
At the same time, Beketova is convinced that if Ukraine manages to regain control of the Black Sea, regain the peninsula, or simply apply enough pressure on these territories to threaten Putin, “this will mean the end of the war” .
In the past two years since Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine has carried out numerous air and naval strikes against Russian targets in Crimea and inflicted significant damage on Moscow's fleet in the Black Sea. Russia illegally and forcibly annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now considers it an integral part of its territory. Kiev has vowed to expel Russian forces from Crimea, as well as other Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Moscow.