A meeting between representatives of Ukraine and Russia is scheduled for Thursday, May 15, in Istanbul, to discuss the possibilities of a ceasefire. Volodymyr Zelensky said that he will be there and will wait for Vladimir Putin.
However, there is a huge danger for Ukraine and Europe if Putin does indeed appear in person (although not very likely). The analytical project Re: Russia explains why, writes Meduza.
According to analysts, Zelensky's position will be very weak, because there will be no European representatives at the meeting, and US leader Donald Trump wants to quickly end this war, as he promised, and this will mean that Kiev will make big concessions. Ukraine will not accept this dictate, and Trump may blame Kiev for the failure of the negotiations.
In an attempt to achieve quick success, the Trump administration was ready throughout April to make significant concessions to Moscow, such as recognizing Crimea as Russian.
Putin's demands have not changed: Ukraine's surrender. His main demand is that the European coalition not assist Ukraine in strengthening its defense capabilities and not be present there after the end of hostilities. This would leave Ukraine defenseless against a new Russian attack.
If Putin does not come to Istanbul, then the ministerial-level negotiations will most likely end in nothing. However, if it is announced that Putin is going to Istanbul, this should be a signal of danger for Ukraine and the Europeans. Zelensky will have little room to maneuver if Putin and Trump show up in Istanbul with an agreement that Trump will want to sign.
It is almost certain that there will be no Europeans in Istanbul - the leaders of Britain, France and Germany, who have supported Zelensky in all previous episodes of pressure on him by the US administration.
Zelensky has called on Putin to come to Turkey in person and said he will not negotiate with other Russian representatives. The Ukrainian leader has repeatedly demonstrated his strength when pressed to the side. But it will be dangerous if his desire for Putin to attend the talks actually comes true.